Western Canadian Crop Marketing Update – December 13th

Western Canadian Crop Market Update

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Canola

Key notes for this week
Before diving into Canola, Three charts needing to be focussed on in the Corn and Soybean section. Soybean stock to use globally is higher than recent years but soybean oil showing some tightness. Canola and Soybean oil tend to correlate in trade.
Corn ending stocks shaping up to have tightest stocks to usage ratio in about 10 years. Corn global ending stocks were the “big surprise” in this report
Thursday and Friday Canola markets faced slight pullback. There was some incredible strength seen in EU rapeseed as it touched contract high and its highest level since February 2023.
USDA WASDE was out on Tuesday morning
Soybean oil exports projections were set higher by the usda to 500,000 tonnes which would come in around a 3 year high. Exports running well on pace to reach that already. Soybean oil and canola oil keeping a strong correlation to eachother this year due to sustainable fuel markets. Well detailed chart below near lower part of the report, highlightling global veg oil markets. SoyOil and Canola lagging behind Palm Oil and Rapeseed futures
United States Weekly Soybean exports came in on the low end of expectations this week. 947,000 tonnes was a few hundred thousand tonnes below expectations
Last week, Statistics Canada posted figures lower than industry estimates pre report. Market was expecting to see an 18.5mmt number from the report and it came in around 600,000 tonnes less than anticipated… 17.845 was the official figure.
European Rapeseed hit a contract high on Friday afternoon. See chart below. MATIF rapeseed and ICE canola spreads are narrowing from 220 per tonne to around 80 per tonne. MATIF Rapeseed and other global values are running much stronger than Canadian canola as seen in above chart. Canadian canola still trading at a significant discount to European and Australian canola.
Export pace remains strong as noted in above chart, behind record pace but still on pace for a very strong year,
Most of the drive lower since mid to late November was in line with soybean oils drive lower on US tariff fears and US Biofuel fears with the incoming administration.
Fears on US tariffs being imposed by President Trump of 25% when inaugurated late January. Majority of Canadian canola oil heads to United States for food, industrial and biofuel production. Over 90% recently exported to US
Need to keep exports strong. Week 18 was another good week just shy of 140,000 tonnes. Export pace very strong just below record pace. Domestic Usage pace very strong. Need to hit about 90 thousand tonnes each week to hit export targets. So 2 panamax shipments a week (60,000 tonne) would be suffice at current pace.
Understood that export volumes would slow regardless due to lower exportable volumes and likely front loading of exports by China.
ABARES Australia out at 5.6 mmt and pre report estimates had a wide range from 5.0 to 6.0. Crop coming off right now
USDA FAS and WASDE will be out next week
EU rapeseed and Malaysian Palm Oil Finding Strength again off November lows. Biofuel demand questions and supply issues spar each day with who is taking the headline
Canadian Canola values remain discounted to global values.
Board Crush values last update sits around $147 per tonne

Spring Wheat

USDA WASDE Charts included from the latest FAS and WASDE
GLOBAL wheat ending stocks tightest since 2015 according to the latest report.
In Canada, 800,000 tonnes of spring wheat added to the supply side of the balance sheet from the September update. Durum tonnage was shaved slightly. Nothing far off from the range of expectations.
Western Canadian basis appears to be improving and higher value targets being grabbed later part of the week for nearby delivery. Strong demand remains as wheat export pace is tracking in line with last years record export pace.
$8.00+ prevalent across the prairies except with some locations north of highway 16 in Saskatchewan. Looking to advance some sales at levels higher than $8.00. Work with your local advisor to discuss what works for you.
Weaker CDN dollar helping.
Russian Ruble very low.
US wheat futures at the detriment of a High USD values. Russian Ruble values very low making wheat cheaper relative to counterpart
Some 2025/26 Black Sea wheat crop estimates place it in the 82 – 84 mmt range. So similar to estimates this year but down from the 90+ mmt figures of years past.
Russia mulling placing export quota of 11mmt for last half of their marketing season. Was 29mmt same time last year.

Corn

Soybeans

Oats

Stats Canada figures came in slightly higher than pre report estimates and bumped up from the September figures and August figures.
Markets trying to digest what the extra tonnage means for the total picture. Quality oats are few and far between. Seeing some stronger bids for both Glyphosate free oats and for heavier oats.
Need to keep an eye on demand here in coming weeks and update accordingly. 400,000 tonnes have been added to the supply side of the equation from the spring. Some acreage changes. The number of Quality oats is the real concern. Well understood that oats came in lighter and milling quality risks. So true Milling Quality oat supply is the real question
Western Canadian oat production came in on the light side. Weight was a concern with this oat harvest having trouble hitting spec for 2CW. 3CW and 4CW is prevalent.
Oat prices are sit at $4.25 to $4.75 across the prairies. $4.50 quite common and $4.75 moreso for the glyphosate free market but bids have been strengthening. Oats were anticipated to have been heavily sold by producers early in the production year. Seeing bids pick up here in recent weeks due to lack of good quality oats. Oat bids about $0.50 to $0.75 from its lows already.
North East Sask and Western Manitoba will call the shots on this crops balance sheet, as usual.
Front end demand is largely covered off for oats although and pricing will depend on post harvest demand and how this crop actually shakes out. Exports will dictate how tight we get. Right now exports are starting to pick up but still a bit behind pace. See chart above.

Barley

Export pace faster than last year but still well behind the 3 years of 2021,2022,2023 when we gained some more Chinese demand as the Australian crop was not moving into China.
End users / Maltsters came out of the gate early with bids and appear to have covered off front demand. Maltsters still looking for some crop to round out their inventories towards tail end of marketing year. No Exciting moves here lately. Feed pricing $5.00 central prairies. $5.75+ south Alta
Exports are not expected to be anything special as we largely lost a pile of market share to the Australian market exporting into China. Still moving some into China but how many boats we get remains top issue. See export pace chart above
Malt has been the play so far this year and grade will dictate price sentiment. Early malt bids are still holding place, flattening in recent weeks.

Pulses

Lentils shaved 150,000 tonnes from september
Peas shaved 150,000 tonnes
Chickpeas down 40,000 tonnes
Global demand will be the key factor here. A few key sales to export markets will dictate the balance sheet massively come the end of the marketing year.
Lentil tariff exemption into India remains into spring 2025. Yellow pea exemption will renew or expire at end of December

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