Western Canadian Crop Market Update
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Canola
- Key notes for this week
- Canola trading lower
- Fears on US tariffs being imposed by President Trump of 25% when inaugurated late January. Majority of Canadian canola oil heads to United States for food, industrial and biofuel production
- Fears shot canola lower after a challenging week already on US Soybean Oil
- Market looks to have found some short term footing with a close higher Thursday and Friday.
- Thin trade due to US Thanksgiving holiday.
- Updated week 16 export data.
- Canola exports tracking close to record pace. Week 16 volumes slowed although. 2nd worst export week of the year
- Understood that export volumes would slow regardless due to lower exportable volumes and likely front loading of exports by China.
- This week coming up we have ABARES, Statistics Canada for updated rapeseed / Canola fundamental figures.
- USDA FAS and WASDE will be out week after which will update global estimates.
- EU rapeseed gapped higher Friday, generally a positive technical sign. EU rapeseed has been facing a selloff recently
- Updated Global FOB Values. Canadian Canola values remain cheap.
- Board Crush values highest since mid June of 2024.
Spring Wheat
- US wheat futures at the detriment of a High USD values. Russian Ruble values very low making wheat cheaper relative to counterpart
- Thin trade this week, limited news to report on from the chart side.
- Stats Can and ABARES this week. USDA FAS week after. Take a look at if any major adjustments. Current balance sheet for the globe looks to be tightest in about a decade. North American supplies a bit more abundant, moreso than EU and FSU regions.
- Canadian wheat export pace remains very strong, tracking close to last years rapid pace. See chart below
- Some 2025/26 Black Sea wheat crop estimates place it in the 82 – 84 mmt range. So similar to estimates this year but down from the 90+ mmt figures of years past.
- Rumors of Russia placing export quota of 11mmt for last half of their marketing season. Was 29mmt same time last year.
Corn
Soybeans
Oats
- Western Canadian oat production came in on the light side. Weight was a concern with this oat harvest having trouble hitting spec for 2CW. 3CW and 4CW is prevalent.
- Oat prices are sit at $4.25 to $4.75 new crop across the prairies. $4.50 quite common and $4.75 moreso for the glyphosate free market but bids have been strengthening. Oats were anticipated to have been heavily sold by producers early in the production year. Seeing bids pick up here in recent weeks due to lack of good quality oats. Oat bids about $0.50 to $0.75 from its lows already.
- North East Sask and Western Manitoba will call the shots on this crops balance sheet. Expect a tight balance sheet if demand stays steady.
- Front end demand is largely covered off for oats although and pricing will depend on post harvest demand and how this crop actually shakes out. AAFC is calling for a carryout of just 350,000 tonnes which would be considered very tight. Private analysts are higher but adjusting balance sheets lower in recent weeks. Not much wiggle room in the domestic oat balance sheet. Exports will dictate how tight we get.
Barley
- End users / Maltsters came out of the gate early with bids and appear to have covered off front demand. Maltsters still looking for some crop to round out their inventories towards tail end of marketing year.
- Corn is the Achilles heel to feed barley pricing. Corn is very cheap and even with barley values about 40% lower year over year, it still struggles to find competitiveness into feed rations. Barley is pricing into Alta feedlots competitively right now, but walks a fine line with corn.
- Exports are not expected to be anything special as we largely lost a pile of market share to the Australian market exporting into China. Still moving some into China but how many boats we get remains top issue.
- Malt has been the play so far this year and grade will dictate price sentiment. Early malt bids are still holding place, flattening in recent weeks.
Pulses
- Lentil Balance sheet revisions will be made lower than they were in summer. Some small pockets reporting way above average yields but more common than not to see less than anticipated yields. Some grade issues, disease. Lentil bids around to $0.34 and are commonplace in central prairie locations.
- Global demand will be the key factor here. A few key sales to export markets will dictate the balance sheet massively come the end of the marketing year.
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