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Grain markets mostly higher for the week, European wheat up $2.50 per tonne for the week while European rapeseed futures grab another $10.25 per tonne in the past five trading days, giving up some action today although, down $4.75. Minneapolis Spring wheat is the lone grain trading lower, losing $0.18 in value in the past five sessions.
- Soybean oil up 1.15% for the week. Soybeans have a much-needed week trading to the upside, beans pick up 3.22% on strength in meal values.
- Soybean meal having a major week, up 7.6%
- Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate dropped 4.02% for the week or $3.32 per barrel.
- India’s palm oil duties were cut again in October due to rising vegetable oil costs. Palm oil costs reduced to 32.5% down to 17.5% until March 31, 2022.
- Soybean and palm oil global prices converging after soybean oil took a premium earlier on in the fall.
- Presidents Biden and Xi met virtually yesterday to discuss bilateral issues amongst the two nations. Phase 1 agreements were not believed to have been talked about. The conversation was heavily focussed on escalating Chinese tensions between China and Taiwan
- US soybean harvest is 92% completed nationwide, up 5% for the week and right in line with the five-year average.
- Brazilian soybean planting 78% complete.
- German rapeseed area is expected to have grown from 5% to 10% on continued higher global prices. Crop conditions remain good as the crop begins to overwinter. Similar production increases are expected to hit other EU growing regions.
- German pork producers facing export restrictions due to more cases of ASF found in its eastern regions. Germany is one of the worlds largest pork exporters
- Managed money got rid of 13,000 soybean oil contracts this week, spec funds went long 18,000 meal contracts.
- Dryness beginning to become a concern in a few pockets of southern Brazil and areas of Argentina, although nothing of alarm yet. We will be closely watching
Soyban and Palm Oil Export Pricing
- Ocean freight rates dropped a whopping 8% week over week. It costs $45.25 per tonne to ship a tonne of grain from the US west coast into Japan. The same time last year, the cost was $23.50 per tonne.
- US grain barges unloaded at gulf ports came in at 611,996, 26% less than the week prior.
- Global special crop markets turning sideways for the time being as importers try to balance higher prices yet meet demand.
- Chinese pea imports lower than expected in most recent monthly data.
- Indian Rabi crop growing conditions remain favorable but specialty crop acres could take a hit due to lower returns vs other grains.
- Russian and Ukranian mustard bids up on lower supplies across western Canada. Blacksea exports nearly double September 2020 levels.
Red Lentil Global Production
- Brazil reported 2 cases of BSE or “Mad Cow” disease transfer to humans late last week which will likely further extend the export ban to China. China placed a ban on Brazilian beef early in September over BSE risks.
- Ukraine is poised for a large corn crop this year, USDA places Ukrainian corn at 38 mmt, which is up from last years 30.3 mmt. Ukraine is a close competitor to US corn into China. Ukrainian crop is 73% harvested.
- Canadian wheat remains the most expensive wheat globally at $406 per tonne FOB while Argentinian wheat is the cheap product at $314 per tonne FOB.
- Middle Eastern and North African wheat imports remain strong. Egypt and Turkey remain the globes top wheat importers and steady growth is seen due to population increases. Egypt is set to import 13mmt. Turkey on pace for 11 mmt which is up 37% from the year prior, Algeria imports are up 17% year on year to a total of 7 mmt.
- Canadian oat exports are forecasted to slump to 1.1 mmt this marketing year, the lowest level since 2003/04. The USDA forecasted oat production at 2.3 mmt, down 50% from a year ago. Oat prices touched records as it is a hard to substitute crop. The United States typically imports up to 60% of its oat demand and will need to try and source oats from European regions and a few from Australia. See “chart of the week” below.
- 91% of the US corn crop is harvested this week, compared to 86% from the same week last year.
- 94% of the US winter wheat crop is planted, 45% is rated as “Good or Excellent” which is up 1% from last week and down 1% from last year.
Chart of THe Week
South America – 7 Day Precipitation Forecasts
Red Areas Highlight Key Production Regions
Canadian Drought Conditions Monitor