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- Grain markets soften Tuesday after an excellent close to last week and some follow through trading into Monday’s session.
- Canola markets pick up $9.60 or $0.22 per bushel for those keeping score.
- Bean oil trading higher, although took back a good chunk of it into Tuesday.
- Big events to watch for this week:
- Stats Canada released Quarterly Stocks report today (May 9th)
- USDA WASDE report out on Friday
- Turkish Election to take place over the weekend (May 14th) with current leader behind in the polls
- Ukraine/Russian/Turkish UN Blacksea Grain Corridor agreement is set to expire May 18th.
- Malaysian Palm Oil trading down 6.6% last week and up 13% this week. Some very volatile trading on some bigger fundamental news
- Palm oil stocks fell by 10% month over month in Malaysia which helped spike palm oil late last week.
- European Rapeseed trading down 3% for the week. Mostly missing out on the brief rally Canola and Palm Oil took advantage of last week.
- Another thing of note, the European Rapeseed crop looks good. The crop is currently flowering in many areas of Germany and France and looks good. EU rapeseed markets will focus heavier on its domestic production for the near future.
- Canada’s crop is being planted, there are some problem areas where soil moisture is dry, but no one is ringing alarm bells yet. The Canadian canola crop is all production risk right now. Timely rains will erode away fears of production risk
- All eyes are now focused on North American planting progress and weather.
- Canadian prairies well underway in most regions. Alberta has put out one crop report while we can expect Manitoba and Saskatchewan to start reporting shortly.
- US Corn and Bean crop progressing nicely. 49% of corn is planted vs 42% average
- Soybean planting 35% vs 21% average
- Spring wheat 24% planted vs an average of 38%
- Brazil farmers estimated to be around half sold their current harvested crop, compared to 67% on average.
- Last weeks Monthly US oilseed crushing report had crush up slightly better than expected at 198 million bushels of crush vs 197.3 million bushels expected.
- US soybean oil stocks were slightly lower than expected as well, some slightly bullish news for the sector.
- European soil moisture looks good in Northern Europe and into most FSU regions.
- The EU rapeseed crop came out of dormancy in relatively good condition and could be another year of good production if crop conditions remain strong into July harvest.
- See JRC comments immediately below.
- April 24th. European Rapeseed production regions looking to be coming out of dormancy in good shape.
- Production at this point is expected to be very good. Upwards of 7% higher production on a per acre base according to the latest release from the central reporting agency for the EU (JRC MARS)
- Combine this with an estimated 1.7% acreage increase from the EU rapeseed crop places a healthy jump in production.
- If all goes well through harvest, Europe will put out another large rapeseed crop.
- COCERAL, raised its Rapeseed 2023 production estimates to 21.1 mmt, up from its 20.4 mmt expected in December.
- Last year, EU produced 19.5 mmt rapeseed crop.
- Malaysia kept its export tax for crude at 8% for the month of May
- Over 20% of Argentina’s soy crop has been harvested.
- Latest report shows that leading into harvest, only 3% of the crop had been listed in good or excellent condition.
- Aprils USDA WASDE report figures below: Updated figures will be released May 12th.
- Soybean stocks came in higher than analysts expected. Market was expecting around a 98.6 mmt ending stock figure in beans and ended up with 100.3
- Chinese rapeseed oil and soybean oil imports look to fall. Rapeseed oil to fall 320,000 metric tonnes of finished product
- WASDE FAS Report did raise 2022/23 global rapeseed production from 86.31 mmt to 87.16 mmt month over month.
- USDA cut soybeans in Argentina by an big 6 mmt, markets were expecting a 29 to 30 mmt but the USDA cut to 27 mmt
- Partially offset as the Brazil crop came in 1mmt higher
- March ABARES Quarterly update: (Next Quarterly Update June 6th)
- ABARES increased some production estimates for the crop that came off in December and into January.
- Canola production was given a boost to a record shattering 8.3 mmt. 6.82 mmt was the prior record set last year and prior to that, 2-4mmt were common crop sizes out of Australia.
- Australia has been filling gaps in Europe with cheap canola where Canadian crops have fit in recent years. Canola port price Australia around the $685 per tonne level vs $880 at Vancouver.
- UPDATED AMIS GLOBAL CROP MONITOR: (SEE MAP BELOW)
- Relatively few areas of concern for oilseed production outside of South America. More to watch as we get into Northern Hemisphere growing season in April/May
Chinese Soy Import’s – USDA FAS Oilseeds
OILSEED TECHNICAL INDICATORS
July SOYBEAN OIL – BOLLINGER BANDS (18 Day Moving Average Red, 50 Day Black, 100 Day Yellow)
July CANOLA – BOLLINGER BANDS (18 Day Moving Average Red, 50 Day Black, 100 Day Yellow)
July PALM OIL – BOLLINGER BANDS (18 Day Moving Average Red, 50 Day Black, 100 Day Yellow)
USDA WASDE DATA – April 2023
- Statistics Canada Seeding Intentions last week.
- Crop Stocks Report out Next Tuesday.
- Flax and Oat acres expected to drop significantly.
- Lentil acres expected to drop. Wheat acres Up
- Grain stocks chart in just below the top section.
- Lentils were the standout to the lower stock side, Oats to the Upside, a massive 114% higher.
- US Grain Stocks March 1st:
- Durum: 35.8 million bushels up 18% from 1 year ago
- Barley: 88.7 million bushels, up 22% year over year
- Oats: 42.9 million bushels, slightly below last years stocks. Of these stocks, on farm stocks were up 26% from 1 year ago while off farm stocks were down 12% year over year.
- US lentil acres expected to be down over 20% year over year.
- February exports of lentils from Australia set a monthly record.
- Spain, France and Italy durum production regions very dry. Spain is in worst shape. North African crop looking dry as well.
- US Pea Acreage expected to climb 9%
- Some analysts, in contrast, looking at a pea acreage drop in Canada for the year ahead.
- Poor Conditions in Northern African Durum production regions.
- Australian pea crop raised to 314,000 tonnes. Up 20% year over year
- ABARES Lentil crop size updated to 1.4 mmt from 1.05 mmt in their December update and 1 million tonnes last year.
- Early indications point towards more peas from the Black Sea region due to lower capital costs to plant.
- Canadian Flax offers into China still holding a price premium to Kazakh or Russian flax.
- 2023 EU Durum crop is forecasted to be upwards of 7.8 million tonnes. Which could be largest in over 5 years.
- Flax exports from Russia hit a record 975,000 tonnes in 2021/22
- Russia has been flooding several markets with Flax this year so far as well and it is hurting North American export prospects.
- European Durum crop expected at to 6.9 mmt, 800,000 tonnes lower than last years production.
- Canadian Durum crop is high quality, over half as a #1.
- Canadian flax exports are slower, larger than expected ending stocks come in. Most since 2017/18
- Statistics Canada Seeding Intentions last week.
North American Soil Moisture – Year over Year
RUSSIA WEATHER ANOMALY – PAST 30 Days
- US Corn crop is half planted, ahead by about 7% ahead of average.
- Spring wheat planting a bit behind pace but catching up with some open planting weather.
- US winter wheat conditions increased by 1% in the Good to Excellent range but the worst parts of the crop actually got worse as Very poor to Poor also increased 2%.
- US planting is ahead of pace for corn and soybeans. Market placing little risk premium into planting with US crops as appears to be relatively open planting windows ahead.
- Soil conditions showing the move towards dry conditions in Corn and Bean production region. Big rain system expected this week although is keeping a damper on the worry.
- Spring wheat planting regions of USA should get some good weather windows to plant here going forwards, although planting is later than normal due to a overly cool spring.
- Egypt tendered for wheat last week and it appears tenders came in near $260 to $275 US per tonne.
- Jordan tendered for wheat as well, although tenders appear to be in the $$290 to $300 per tonne range
- US winter wheat acreage looks to be coming into some rains again this week.
- Some local reports state that the crop is past seeing any improvements, only being able to salvage the yield that was already there.
- Winter wheat is 38% headed, post heading, the crop already has little chance to add yield other than through weight.
- Private analysts have Russia’s 2023 wheat crop at around 85 mmt, this past years crop was estimated to be at well over 100 mmt. 85 mmt would be back to a “normal” production number.
- China and Australia have reached a deal upon the ongoing Barley dispute. Removal of the 80.5% import duty is to be dropped on imports going forwards.
- Both Old and New crop Barley bids in North America have softened in recent weeks.
- Ukrainian wheat production expected at 17 mmt down from last years 21 mmt and down from 25 mmt in 2020
- USDA WASDE HIGHLIGHTS (APRIL REPORT): New report out on May 12th.
- Global wheat stocks came in below anticipated levels. Average analyst estimate was 267.1 mmt but the actual figure came in at 265.1 mmt.
- Global Corn came in nearly in line with expectations from the marketplace
- USDA cut Argentinian corn by 3 mmt but left Brazil untouched, mostly what the market was expecting
- Russian wheat exports to approach record high in April.
- Outstanding sales are at a several month low due to Russian exporters trying to place a bottom on their crop prices of $275 per tonne. Although appears to have dropped below that now. Lowest volume since November.
- Turkish election is set to take place May 14th, 3 days ahead of the Russian Ukraine export corridor negotiations. Keep in mind that Turkey is the nation that helps barter the Black Sea grain deal with the UN and all grains leaving the black sea need to sail through Turkish waters.
- It will be a tough election for the current government to win, with current leader Erdogan facing ongoing health issues in the weeks ahead of the main election.
- Indian wheat estimated at 108mmt by the USDA while the Indian government sits at 112-114 mmt.
- March ABARES report stated a record smashing 39.2 mmt crop being reported. 14.1 mmt barley crop as well, 3rd largest on record.
- Wheat crop is 2.6 mmt larger than the December report.
- 36.7 mmt crop size last year.
- 24.2 mmt five year average
APRIL WASDE – GLOBAL GRAIN FOB WHEAT PRICES
July CORN – BOLLINGER BANDS (18 Day Moving Average Red, 50 Day Black, 100 Day Yellow)
July Spring Wheat – BOLLINGER BANDS (18 Day Moving Average Red, 50 Day Black, 100 Day Yellow)
UNITED STATES RAINFALL – WPC 5-7 DAY QPF
Some Rains For Hard Red Winter Wheat Regions
See Ukraine/ Russia Chart Below. Levels Indicated Were At Start of Conflict. Numbers Have Changed, Put In Place For Reference.