Market Highlights
The Key Events took place this week that are most pertinent to Western Canadian Producers.
Canada and China met in Bilateral conversations overnight at 1:00AM MTN time. The meeting was the first diplomatic meeting between the nations leaders since 2017. The topics of highest interest were EV Tariffs against Chinese Electric Vehicles, Canola Tariffs, Pea Tariffs, Pork and Seafood Tariffs. The Chinese and Canadian governments “Agreed to Move Swiftly and Align Trade Policies going forwards. China also extended an official state visit to Canada in the near future. Although Tariffs were not removed, the tone of the meeting was constructive.
USA and Chinese governments met in South Korea on Thursday. The two nations agreed to work together on trade issues as well. USA lowered tariffs to 10% against China from the 20% levels. China agreed to buy 25 mmt of Soybeans from US producers annually through the end of 2028. This comes as a sigh of relief for US markets and part of the reason Soybean markets were able to snag close to 5% this week. 25mmt would be on the lower end of the import range if look from 2020 to last year. Imports ranged from 26mmt to 31 mmt in recent years. All demand is helpful and helped paint a better picture as many analysts has the Chinese in for zero tonnes of Soybeans this year.
India placed tariffs on all yellow pea imports at a rate of 30%. This comes after reports last week they were going to have 0% tariffs until the end of March 2026. The tariff announcement has removed pea bids from many markets and pushed the bids down $1.50 to $2.00 lower in the locations still offering bids. China and India combined can be well over 2/3rds of total pea demand and the tariffs from the two nations are detrimental.
Canola
Canola exports falling below trendline. Crush data released and has crush on for a record pace but still not enough to offset the poor start to exports. Export pace still being watched closely as we see port stocks climb to 380,000 tonnes which should be exported shortly. Markets will have a challenge maintaining rallies unless can see fundamentals paint a tighter supply picture. Canadian canola crop sits just over 20 million metric tonnes for its 2025 crop estimate from Stats Canada. The crop was placed at 20.03 million tonnes and is the largest crop for Canola since 2018 when a 20.7 mmt crop was produced. This would place the 2025 canola crop at the third largest on record. Exports behind last years pace, but ahead of other years, see chart below. Demand is a concern going forwards with the 75% tariff from China and larger Canadian crop and global crop vs last year. Crush usage is up already for the year and crush will call some major shots this year as the extra capacity will be welcomed for usage. Global demand is expected to stay relatively flat as well, resulting in a larger global carryout. WHAT THE BULLS AND BEARS ARE WATCHING: Australian canola crop revised higher and will be off November/December timeframe. Still appears Australia is getting good business off its coast. China has committed to make some major purchases from Australia in the tune of half million tonnes. European overall imports expected to be down 1.2 mmt from last year. Canadian canola pricing cheap globally vs competing rapeseed. Some ships are on water to France Japan, Germany, UAE and South Korea. New crop being shipped. High volumes heading into crushers could keep ending stocks from becoming burdensome if extra demand is not realized from trade partners. Crush Margins very strong see chart in slides below.
New Feature: Swipe right or left through the Interactive Charts Below:
Spring Wheat + Durum
Very strong exports of wheat so far and the pace is above last years record movement. We need to see this pace continue and 1.3 mmt of wheat sits in port export position pointing towards continued demand. Some very strong supplies in ports on the coast and the market has confidence there will be continued strong exports. Some premiums being tacked on for quick delivery opportunities in HRSW but not exceeding $7.15 to $7.25 in most cases. We can cath $7.75 further our later into winter central SK. Saskatchewan Durum values at $7.50 but $8 has been poking its head around while some spring wheat values tacking on value in the basis Wheat futures catch a bounce in Chicago and Kansas City this week. tats Canada proposed that the Canadian spring wheat crop is the largest crop since 2013 and posted a 26.6 mmt figure. Durum the largest crop since 2020 at 6.53 mmt. Some questions remain as to how much high quality spring wheat will be removed from the system due to the sprouting and quality issues caused from the rains in South East Sask.
Quality of the Canadian wheat crop (Updated Data as of October 20 CGC):
Durum
Protein – 2025 Protein Content at 14.7 per cent vs 15.3 per cent last year (December Final Report) (All Grades)
Grade – 48 per cent of samples either #1 or #2 CWAD in 2025 vs 73 per cent last year (December Final Report) 2 per cent of the durum in 2025 fell in the #3 category vs just 12.5 per cent last year. More precipitation during harvest being left to blame. Severely sprouted kernels, midge damage, mildew, Fusarium and weight being major factors putting more into the #3 category this year vs last. Last year it was almost exclusively weight being the factor for #3 durum.
Canadian Western Red Spring Wheat
Protein – 2025 Protein Content at 13.8 per cent vs 14.1 per cent last year. (December Final Report) (All Grades)
Grade – 97 per cent of wheat grading #1 or #2 CWRS vs 94 per cent last year. The factors pushing the slight amount below the #2 grade include fusarium and sprouting although overall the CWRS from the samples took in until the report date were or mostly good quality.
What the Bulls Vs What the Bears are watching: Canada is coming off of a record export year for wheat and global price indications show there should be similar market availability this year. Global usage is higher and will offset some of the larger crops globally. Exports are slow in many key regions of the world and producers willingness to sell at these values is limited. The bears are watching larger than anticipated crops coming off in many regions of the worlds and watching to see if they continue to get revised higher. Australia and Argentina are the next up for wheat harvest globally and no issues in either region. Durum exporters seeing if can pick up a bit more demand. Durum export sale of 310,000 tonnes to Algeria is helping with demand.
Oats + Barley
Oats – Canadian oat market under harvest pressure and domestic bids sit mostly under the $4.00 per bushel range in the strongest regions. Weakest bids around $3.00 per bushel with some even lower in the $2.75 range. Oat supply and disposition does not look burdensome by any means and harvest reports anecdotally were average to less than average in many key production regions. Canadian oats were the oddity of the Statistics Canada report and any other private estimates and the crop ending stock carryout is largely expected to decline year over year. Oat demand is anticipated to remain steady to and production has not been expected to grow either. For oats there has been very little interest from exporters recently and the general feeling is that export markets are covered for their fall requirements. the oat market demand side is relatively inelastic on most given years and production is the large determinant of ending stocks. Supply and Disposition chart provided for readers. Export pace is below average and we will need to see shipments increase.
Barley crop harvest began with some quality issues but crops generally found some quality. Domestic users “Maltsters” have been mostly able to cover off their needs. Malt prices have been softening since about mid September but there is still demand. Producers need to fully understand their barley quality before making marketing decisions. Malt barley worth the $5.00 to $5.50 range in many export locales and feed is in the $4.50 range. Feed barley prices will largely be determined by the amount of feed available to the system. There is large concern for the cereal crop sitting out in Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba and if the quality will be degraded. Also need to watch the spread between corn and barley and if it is enticing for shipments of corn to move into the Canadian Prairie provinces. Barley crop overall is anticipated to be 8.2 mmt which is up year over year. There were significantly less acres of barley this year being planted and that will help with the ending stock figure
Lentils + Peas
Peas – India’s 30% tariff on Peas not welcome news and shuts off another key market for Canadian Peas. Pea bids fall to no bid or into the $5.00 per bushel range. Pea crop came in very large, with larger carry in inventories and lower demand prospects if China does not come to the table and purchase has left markets suppressed until they see demand show up. Pea supplies look burdensome at the time and exports will need to be swift to make a dent in the estimated supplies. Exports sit at a decent pace but appear to have lost that initial early rapid pace.
Lentil values have came back from their “no bid” situation just a few weeks ago. sit in the $0.23 range. Lentil harvest was very strong and leaving what could to be a burdensome carryout for the supply chain, especially if exports lag. Australian crop will be online shortly as their harvest season begins. Picking up a few pennies but Reds and Green bids both not exceeding $0.23 per pound in either case and not much of a $$ spread between Reds or Greens either. Lentil supply looks heavy
Corn – Soybeans
Corn and Soybean 5 Year Seasonal- Black Line (Current Year) Green Line (Seasonal Move)
2025/26 Exceed Grain Marketing Recommendations
2026/27 Exceed Grain Marketing Recommendations
Our market intelligence reports incorporate information obtained from various third-party sources, government publications, and other outlets. While we endeavor to maintain the highest standards of accuracy and integrity in our reports, we acknowledge that the information provided may contain inadvertent errors or omissions. As such, we accept no liability for any inaccuracies or missing information in the data presented. Furthermore, these reports are not intended to serve as standalone investment or financial advice. We strongly advise that any financial or investment decisions be made in consultation with a professional market advisor. Reliance on the content or forecasting provided within of our reports for making financial decisions without such professional advice is at the sole risk of the user.
