Soybeans were the most watched North American agriculture grain / oilseed for the week. China announced on Friday that they would begin doing soybean deals with the United States as long as they stay price competitive globally. Markets were lower on Thursday after almost a week had passed and there was little to no news on how China would go about purchasing the 12mmt the US mentioned they were going to commit to. USA and Chinese governments met in South Korea on last Thursday. The two nations agreed to work together on trade issues as well. China agreed to buy 25 mmt of Soybeans from US producers annually through the end of 2028. 25mmt would be on the lower end of the import range if look from 2020 to last year. Imports ranged from 26mmt to 31 mmt in recent years. All demand is helpful and helped paint a better picture as many analysts had the Chinese in for zero tonnes of Soybeans this year.

Canola

Canola exports better this week but still trying to maintain trendline. On pace for just below 6mmt at the current pace but pricing well into global markets. Crush data released and has crush on for a record pace but still not quite enough to offset the poor start to exports. Export pace still being watched closely as we see port stocks sit at 324,000 tonnes which should be exported shortly. Canola needs to export on average 117,000 tonnes of canola each week from here on out to hit 6.0mmt of exports and we have exported 188,000 this week. Markets will need to see fundamentals paint a tighter supply picture. Canadian canola crop sits just over 20 million metric tonnes for its 2025 crop estimate from Stats Canada. The crop was placed at 20.03 million tonnes and is the largest crop for Canola since 2018 when a 20.7 mmt crop was produced. This would place the 2025 canola crop at the third largest on record. Demand is the #1 question going forwards with the 75% tariff from China and larger Canadian crop and global crop vs last year. Crush usage is up already for the year and crush will call some major shots this year as the extra capacity will be welcomed for usage. Global demand is expected to stay relatively flat as well, resulting in a larger global carryout.

WHAT THE BULLS AND BEARS ARE WATCHING: Australian canola crop revised higher and is beginning to come off right now and should be wrapped up in about 6 weeks. Initial reports are good. Still appears Australia is getting good business off its coast. China has committed to make some major purchases from Australia in the tune of half million tonnes. European overall imports expected to be down 1.2 mmt from last year. Canadian canola pricing cheap globally vs competing rapeseed. Some ships are on water to France Japan, Germany, UAE and South Korea. New crop being shipped. High volumes heading into crushers could keep ending stocks from becoming burdensome if extra demand is not realized from trade partners. Crush Margins very strong see chart in slides below.

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Spring Wheat + Durum

Oats – Canadian oat market under harvest pressure and domestic bids sit mostly under the $4.00 per bushel range in the strongest regions. Weakest bids around $3.00 per bushel with some even lower in the $2.75 range. Oat supply and disposition does not look burdensome by any means and harvest reports anecdotally were average to less than average in many key production regions. Canadian oats were the oddity of the Statistics Canada report and any other private estimates and the crop ending stock carryout is largely expected to decline year over year. Oat demand is anticipated to remain steady to and production has not been expected to grow either. For oats there has been very little interest from exporters recently and the general feeling is that export markets are covered for their fall requirements. the oat market demand side is relatively inelastic on most given years and production is the large determinant of ending stocks. Supply and Disposition chart provided for readers. Export pace is below average and we will need to see shipments increase.

Barley crop harvest began with some quality issues but crops generally found some quality. Domestic users “Maltsters” have been mostly able to cover off their needs. Malt prices have been softening since about mid September but there is still demand. Producers need to fully understand their barley quality before making marketing decisions. Malt barley worth the $5.00 to $5.50 range in many export locales and feed is in the $4.50 range. Feed barley prices will largely be determined by the amount of feed available to the system. There is large concern for the cereal crop sitting out in Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba and if the quality will be degraded. Also need to watch the spread between corn and barley and if it is enticing for shipments of corn to move into the Canadian Prairie provinces. Barley crop overall is anticipated to be 8.2 mmt which is up year over year. There were significantly less acres of barley this year being planted and that will help with the ending stock figure

Flax – Canadian Flax bids sit in the $17 to $18 range mid Canadian prairies. Canadian flax crop has been subject to respectable supplies. Seeing some shipments of Flax out of Thunder Bay into the EU region. We are seeing reports of larger Kazakh flax crops and there will be likely upward revisions to the Canadian crop supplies as it is anticipated the Statistics Canada figure of 365,000 tonnes will be too low. We are awaiting the Stats Canada December report out on December 4th for final production estimates but stocks to usage is forecasted to be quite large unless some unforseen export demand does show itself. The larger crop out out Kazakstan will keep global prices in check.

Canary Seed crop is expected to be of healthy production and push stocks to usage ratio to 82% which is considered a very heavy carryout. Canaryseed bids have picked up slightly in the past weeks but bids still in the $0.20 per pound range and down from the $0.30 per pound seen back in the spring prior to seeding the crop. Canary seed typically carries larger ending stocks due to producers willingness to store the crop and its general lack of being used as a cashflow crop. This has sometimes been shown to benefit producers as the crop is held in “tighter hands” and ending stocks cant be used as the only tool when looking at the canary seed crop.

Peas – India’s 30% tariff on Peas not welcome news and shuts off another key market for Canadian Peas. When the tariff what announced we seen Pea bids fall to no bid or into the $5.00 per bushel range. Since this time markets are picking up ground once again and now sit in the $7.00 to $7.50 region central Saskatchewan. Despite a tariff ridden crop, there is still some domestic and international demand for the crop and the large carryout has been more of a determinant on prices in general. The western Pea crop came in very large, with larger carry in inventories and lower demand prospects if China does not come to the table and purchase has left markets suppressed until they see demand show up.

Lentil values have came back from their “no bid” situation just a month ago and sit in the $0.23 range on Reds. Lentil harvest was very strong and leaving what could to be a burdensome carryout for the supply chain, especially if exports lag. Australian crop is online online and some reports of a weak lentil crop in South Australia is starting to hit the market wires. Overall due to significant domestic production, Lentil supply looks heavy. We are now dependant on how winter crops will shape up in India as they are entering critical weather periods in that region as well.