Markets closed lower for the week. Statistics Canada put out a bearish report with production figures coming in larger than pre report estimates for Canadian crops and published a few records. Wheat production close to 40mmt overall and 29.3 mmt for spring wheat which is a record print on the crop. Canola at just shy of 22mmt is a massive crop, a record crop. 21.5 mmt was the prior record in 2017 but acres were 1.4mmt larger back then. Oats at 3.9 mmt is an extra million tonnes of production or 17% larger than last years crop as yield came in at a 98.1 bpa which is larger than the 97.8mmt in the big 2022/23 production year. The Stats Canada production figures were large overall. Updated supply and disposition estimates throughout the report. Tuesday we will have the USDA WASDE report coming at us and we will see refreshed global production figures on that report. We have not had full refresh on USDA data since September. Domestic Bids for Canola shot lower for the week, but other crops appear to be holding in for the time being. Pulse markets flat post report, Wheat cash bids mostly flat, Durum, Oats, Barley mostly flat. More below.

Canola

Canola exports on pace currently for 6.4 mmt. This pace would be slightly higher than early estimates of 6.0mmt but we need to keep the exports flowing strong. Exports for week 16 were 100,000 tonnes. Markets need to see an export pace of closer to 8mmt to gain real ground and tighten up the balance sheet enough to draw down supplies. Each week that progresses leaves less of a chance of pushing towards this number. We are in Week 18 of 52 so lots of time left in the marketing year, it will just be how the export pace picks up from here. Canola still pricing very well into global markets as can be seen in the global rapeseed pricing sheet. Australian crop coming off and expected to come in quite good. The USDA is forecasting that crop to be around 6.7mmt of total production but the Australian government has the figure closer to 7.1mmt in their December 2nd release. Crush data released and has crush on for a record pace but still not quite enough to offset the slower start to exports. Canola needs to export on average 75,000 tonnes of canola each week from here on out to hit 6.0mmt of exports and 95,000 if want to touch 7mmt. 8MMT is more of a 114,000 tonne per week level. A pace that has been attainable in recent weeks.

What to Watch For In Canola Markets:

• Basis opportunities. Basis has been historically weak for Canadian canola at both export and crush levels.
• Crush capacity. If needing cashflow and if crusher has strongest basis, lock in delivery by electing basis or a cash sale.
• Soybeans and the whether or not China will continue to buy US Beans.
• Soybean Oil Values and the direction of US biofuel mandates which are everchanging.
• Canadian Export Pace. Can we keep the pace to keep us at current levels or can we push higher to the 7mmt level?
• Canadian trade optics: Can we swipe any trade deals with China, market leaning towards NO for the time being but any improvement would be a win.
• South American soybean stories. Will help drive vegoil markets in general. Looks good so far
• Overall demand. Are we crushing and exporting at a fair pace? Currently yes to both for what the market expected prior to the beginning of the marketing year. Need to see that pace grow or stay stable.

New Feature: Swipe right or left through the Interactive Charts Below:

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Spring Wheat + Durum Markets

Oats – Canadian oat market picking up slight pace following significant harvest pressure and domestic bids sit mostly under the $4.00 per bushel range in the strongest regions. Bids have in general grabbed $0.25 per bushel with weakest bids around $3.25 per bushel with some even lower in the $3.00 range. Southern Manitoba bids are starting to play in the $4.10+ range. Oat supply and disposition does not look burdensome by any means and harvest reports anecdotally were average to less than average in many key production regions. One thing of slight concern is that export pace is behind average. Analysts are anticipating oat export pace to pick up come early spring so will need to watch this that exports do not get too far behind. Canadian oats were the oddity of the Statistics Canada report and any other private estimates and the crop ending stock carryout is largely expected to decline year over year. Oat demand is anticipated to remain steady to and production has not been expected to grow either. Oat exports have been very slow to start the year and the general sentiment is that demand will begin to show up in new year. In general, the oat market demand side is relatively inelastic on most given years and production is the large determinant of ending stocks. Supply and Disposition chart provided for readers.

Barley crop size revised higher by Statistics Canada and usage needs to pick up. but crops generally found some quality. Domestic users “Maltsters” have been able to cover off their needs. Malt prices have been softening since about mid September but there is still some demand further out into late winter / spring. Producers need to fully understand their barley quality before making marketing decisions. Malt barley worth the $5.00 to $5.50 range later into the marketing year in many export locales and feed is in the $4.50 to $4.75 range. Also need to watch the spread between corn and barley and if it is enticing for shipments of corn to move into the Canadian Prairie provinces. Barley crop overall is anticipated to be 8.2 mmt which is up year over year. There were significantly less acres of barley this year being planted and that will help with the ending stock figure. No indications of 2026 new crop a this time.

Flax – Canadian Flax bids sit in the $16 range mid Canadian prairies. Canadian flax crop has been subject to respectable supplies. Seeing some shipments of Flax out of Thunder Bay into the EU region. We are seeing reports of larger Kazakh flax crops and Canadian stocks to usage is forecasted to be quite large unless some unforeseen export demand does show itself. The larger crop out out Kazakstan will keep global prices in check.

Canary Seed crop is expected to be of healthy production and push ending stocks to 171,000 tonnes which is considered a very heavy carryout. Canary seed bids have picked up slightly in the past weeks but bids still in the $0.20 per pound range and down from the $0.30 per pound seen back in the spring prior to seeding the crop. Canary seed typically carries larger ending stocks due to producers willingness to store the crop and its general lack of being used as a cashflow crop. This has sometimes been shown to benefit producers as the crop is held in “tighter hands” and ending stocks cant be used as the only tool when looking at the canary seed crop.

Peas – India’s 30% tariff on Peas not welcome news and shuts off another key market for Canadian Peas. When the tariff what announced we seen Pea bids fall to no bid or into the $5.00 per bushel range. Since this time markets are picking up ground once again and now sit in the $7.00 to $7.25 region central Saskatchewan. Despite a tariff ridden crop, there is still some domestic and international demand for the crop and the large carryout has been more of a determinant on prices in general. The western Pea crop came in very large, with larger carry in inventories and lower demand prospects if China does not come to the table and purchase has left markets suppressed until they see demand show up. Large carryout expected.

Lentil values sit in the $0.21 to $0.23 range on Reds. Large greens $0.27 range. Lentil harvest was very strong and leaving what could to be a burdensome carryout for the supply chain, especially if exports lag. Australian crop is online and some early reports of a weak lentil crop in South Australia is starting to hit the market wires. This was recently rebuffed with crops getting better the further they got into them. Overall due to significant domestic production, Lentil supply looks heavy. We are now dependent on how winter crops will shape up in India as they are entering critical weather periods in that region as well. Heavy stocks will take time to work through.